Election: Down to the wire!
HERB BOYD Special to the AmNews | 11/1/2012, 12:32 p.m.
If Nate Silver, the guru of prognosticators, and numerologist Lloyd Strayhorn has it right, President Barack Obama will be re-elected. Silver bases his prediction on the fact that Obama should finish with 295 electoral votes, giving him at least a 2 percent margin of victory. Strayhorn, using his astrological charts and other metaphysical items, believes Obama will win because of several numerical configurations.
Neither Silver nor Strayhorn tend to be wrong in their predictions--Silver correctly picking Obama to win in 2008 and Strayhorn with a near-perfect record during the recent debates. Despite their past accuracy, voters should not rest on Silver and Strayhorn's promises. Furthermore, with the arrival of Hurricane Sandy like an October surprise, many of their calculations could go terribly awry.
The best bet to wager is on your own vote. Given the closeness of this race, nothing can be taken for granted. As our publisher has stated on several occasions, you've got to vote like your life depends on it--and her endorsement should be guidance enough on how to mark your ballot.
Come election night next week, many of us will be watching what happens in certain key swing states, particularly Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado. Remember in 2000 and 2004, Bush squeaked out narrow victories, and if the polls are right, this presidential race should be just as close.
There are a number of local elections of importance, but let's save that discussion for another article. Meanwhile, we are down to the wire and after three debates, numerous polls and a blizzard of ads from both candidates, the race is pretty much a dead heat. If it ends in a tie in the electoral votes--one can win the popular vote and still lose the election--the decision is left to the House of Representatives, and like the Supreme Court, that's not the best place for the last resort.
Silver and Strayhorn may be absolutely right, but there are still a conglomeration of unknowables that even the best predictors and numerologists are not aware of. Again, bet on yourself, and by all means, vote and vote your conscience, and if you're only half conscience, that vote is predictable.