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Romney makes gaffe, flunks college

HERB BOYD Special to the AmNews | 9/21/2012, 11:59 a.m.

Nearly half of all Americans, 47 percent, "believe they are victims" and thereby "depend on government," former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney said back in the spring. This is the mother of all gaffes from the Republican president nominee and may be the final shot in the foot, dooming his bid for the Oval Office.

And if that isn't enough, NerdWallet, one of the leading providers of unbiased quantitative analysis, says that if he by some quirk wins the popular vote, he will still lose the election. This would put him in the same category as Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden, Grover Cleveland and, most recently, Al Gore. According to NerdWallet's infographic, an electoral vote model shows that Romney only has a 20 percent chance of defeating Obama.

"Throughout the conventions, we've seen tons of media coverage saying that national polls are close," says Joanna Pratt, vice president of Financial Markets for NerdWallet. "Unfortunately for Romney, national polls don't determine elections. Only electoral votes matter, and Romney is far behind."

On its website, the infographic has Obama at 201 electoral votes and Romney at 181. To win, a candidate needs 270. There are 156 electoral votes up for grabs and Romney would have to get 89, according to the infographic, which believes he will at best get 25 votes.

These conclusions are based on findings from NerdWallet's statistical election model. To arrive at these conclusions, they examined the accuracy of 1,500 historical presidential polls in predicting outcomes for the last two elections, according to their website.

"The results reflect over 30,000 model simulations based on these outcomes. The model is updated daily to reflect the most recent polling data for the 2012 presidential election," a NerdWallet press release states.

So should the Obama team just relax and exhale?

Of course not, because with the spread of voter suppression from coast to coast making it difficult for voters who might favor Obama, it's all the more necessary to be vigilant and for him to not lower his guard.

Those interested in knowing more about NerdWallet can visit www.nerdwallet.com/blog/markets/infographics/romney-election-odds and see how its Financial Markets team empowers consumers and investors by providing unbiased and transparent access to information on financial markets, politics and the economy.