The 2016 presidential election is upon us. Hopefully our readers have been following the Democratic debates between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and distant third place candidate former Baltimore Mayor and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. (I will discuss the Republican primary clown car in a later post.)
Even though most political scientists and pundits argue that there is barely a primary race in the Democratic Party because of the political and financial strength of Clinton, I can’t help thinking about who would be the best Democratic Party nominee. Upon some reflection and debate analysis, I can’t dismiss Sanders just yet.
There are a few well-documented facts in political science literature. First, for roughly the past 50 years, African-Americans have voted for the Democratic Party candidate in the presidential election at rates of roughly 90 percent. The rates of Black voting during the Obama elections were not surprisingly a bit higher. When looking at Black Democratic Party voting on the local level, African-Americans tend to be a bit more diverse in their voting habits. For example, roughly 20 percent of Blacks in New Jersey voted for Gov. Chris Christie in 2013. This signals an important indicator, which leads me to my second point.
Black voters are strategic voters. In political science literature, we are consistently trying to understand the motivations of strategic versus sincere voters. That is, people who will, at times, vote against their first or ideal preference in order to be strategic. In so many ways, Black voters are strategically voting for Clinton because, one, they assume she will be the nominee. Why vote against someone who may become the presidential nominee and/or the actual president?
Secondly, she and her husband are familiar within the African-American community, and that relationship lends itself to the adage of “going with the devil you know.”
Third, her rhetoric has shifted to address some of the needs and concerns of Black voters, and she has made some very visible hires and alliances with well-respected Black women in politics, i.e., Donna Brazille and Maya Harris.
But is that enough? Strategically a vote for Clinton makes sense. However, it appears if one is going to sincerely vote on issues of concern to the vast majority of Black voters, Sanders seems like an ideal candidate. He is the only candidate who has actively discussed Sandra Bland, Black incarceration rates, police brutality, jobs programs for Black men and boys and a host of progressive issues of note. Clinton seems to listen to Sanders and then adjust her rhetoric for Black voters.
If Sanders is a shot of espresso, Clinton seems to be a watered down Sanka. However, she’ll likely become the nominee since so many people believe that she will be and will vote strategically to make it so. This primary race reminds me of the 2000 primary, when so many people resonated with Bill Bradley’s message but assumed Al Gore would win, so they voted for him instead.
Let us all remember, people win if we vote for them. I am still learning about the candidates, and this is not an endorsement of Sanders at all. Therefore, I implore each of us to delve a bit deeper to make sure our vote makes sense for us now and in the long term.
Christina Greer, Ph.D., is an associate professor at Fordham University and the author of “Black Ethnics: Race, Immigration, and the Pursuit of the American Dream.”
Follow her on Twitter @Dr_CMGreer.
