Democratic presidential candidates are sure to chafe at the news of Trump’s plans on green cards that will favor the wealthy and the major changes his administration is making to the implementation of the Endangered Species Act, but they do have some good news to cheer. Five out of six recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal polls show that Trump is not faring well with suburban voters, particularly white women and white college graduates.
Thus far, no Democratic contender has leaped on this news, and they are seemingly preoccupied in the Iowa caucuses. That is probably the right thing to do given the significance of the Iowa vote, and while polls may be good at the moment, they could be radically different next month.
Even so, when the numbers are coming in from key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, you would think the campaign managers would take note.
The midterm elections, where the Democrats improved their numbers in Congress, were indications of a dramatic political shift in regions where Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton. Now, the polls indicate that he is performing poorly with voting blocs that he carried in 2016.
In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by about 44,000 votes, or one percentage point. His victories in Michigan and Wisconsin were equally narrow, despite these being usually blue states.
But if the polls conducted this year are predictors, there could be a decisive shift in 2020 and Trump might end up on the losing side of this change, notwithstanding the command he holds among conservative working class voters in rural areas.
None of the polls have alarmed the GOP, with several citing that suburban voters, long before Trump’s bid, had begun to drift away from the Republicans.
It’s to be seen what effect Trump’s recent actions will have on his re-election bid as well as on the hopes and outcomes for other GOP candidates. There is a growing concern about his stance on immigration policies, his attacks on people of color and women, and the branding he is receiving from the media as a white nationalist and white supremacist.
For the moment, nonetheless, the polls are looking good for the Democrats, but let’s see if they can hold serve.