There is still a lot of football remaining in the NFL season. Fortunes can change in a moment of misfortune, exemplified by Lamar Jackson, the Baltimore Ravens’ two-time league MVP, suffering a debilitating thumb injury on his right hand, his throwing hand, on the Ravens’ first offensive play from scrimmage in last Sunday’s 36-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Jackson had just returned from missing the 4-4 Ravens’ previous three games with an ankle injury.
The injury likely ends the Ravens aspirations of playing in the Super Bowl, a realistic goal entering this season. The Giants weren’t Super Bowl contenders by any measure at the start of this season and they are still a long shot on most major sportsbooks. Yet they are the favorites to win the NFC East division title going into their Week 9 road matchup versus the Philadelphia Eagles, the defending division champions.
But nothing is a certainty even if the Giants have a high probability of capturing their first division title since 2011, when they went 9-7 (we’ll get into the parallels of that record with this season in a minute) and won the Super Bowl. The Giants are in first place at 4-2-1, followed by the 3-5 Dallas Cowboys, the 2-4-1 Washington Commanders, and, in last place, the 2-6 Eagles. Applying reason, the team that ultimately wins the NFC East will finish the regular season with 10 wins tops, likely nine. Let’s do the simple math.
The Giants have 10 more games to play. If they go 6-4 that’s a record of 10-6-1. Five more wins — 5-5, and averting any more ties — will give them an ending mark of 9-7-1. For context, last season, the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South on the final day of the regular season with an 8-9 and hosted a playoff game. So, like the 2011 campaign, the Giants could conceivably be a division champ with nine wins.
They have the 11th toughest remaining schedule, on paper the hardest schedule in the division based on the combined winning percentages of upcoming opponents, followed by the Commanders (20th), Eagles (22nd), and Cowboys (23rd).
The Cowboys, the team closest to the Giants in the standings, have not shown any potential of reversing course. They have lost three of their last four games and would have to win five of the next nine just to reach eight. The math ain’t mathing for Dallas.
The Giants haven’t been immune to injuries. They have lost four critically important starters for the season: Quarterback Jaxson Dart (torn meniscus and MCL in his left knee); Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns (torn right ACL); inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder/chest); and interior defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris (Lisfranc foot surgery).
Yet, they have persevered under head coach John Harbaugh, who is in his first season leading the Giants but his 19th as an NFL head coach. And with their third starting QB, 23-year-old former first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who has sparked the team after being acquired in a trade with the Minnesota Vikings on Sept. 28.
So, for now, a path to the playoffs looks promising for the Giants. Or until it doesn’t. Such is the fluid and volatile nature of the NFL.
