Nigeria’s 2023 presidential is scheduled to take place on February 25. There are 18 candidates, with perhaps fewer than a quarter of that number having any real chance of making a significant mark at the polls.
Front runners include Peter Obi of the Labor Party; Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC); and Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
The country’s unbalanced economy, ongoing security issues, and political strife have been some of the major themes in the race, which has dominated Africa’s most populous nation for the last few months.
“The Nigerian democratic process is maturing,” Sphynxnet’s Gregory Osagie Ihama told the Amsterdam News. “Eight years ago, we experienced a peaceful transfer of power from the incumbent government of the largest political party in Africa to a seemingly new political party at the time. Furthermore, the current political campaign cycle has galvanized a vibrant movement of young people organically aligning themselves with one of the presidential candidates, without the typical inducement of cash that pervaded our political systems from its inception. These are the hallmarks of a developing democratic process and therefore, I believe the Nigerian political system and level candidature is experiencing positive growth.”
Despite a population of 200 million, there are reportedly only 93 million registered voters in Nigeria. The presidential candidates are banking on civil engagement over lethargy for Saturday’s election.
“It’s my turn,” said Tinubu, 70, a multi-millionaire and former governor of Lagos state (1999–2007), when asked why he should be president. The Yoruba Muslim co-founded the APC in 2013 with current—some say beleaguered—President Muhammadu Buhari.
Tinubu has used his connections to mount a formidable campaign for the incumbent party over the last few months, but his rigorous opponents are undeterred. Heeding the public call, Tinubu promised the electorate that he will use an enlarged military to combat the over a decade-long Islamist insurgency in the north of Nigeria.
The electorate are not easily convinced of age-old campaign promises, though.
Tinubu has faced rumors of misappropriation of funds and corruption, all of which he has denied. Charges brought against him have never stuck, including being cleared by Nigeria’s Code of Conduct Tribunal.
But, of course, fellow candidates make hay while the sun shines with such allegations.
Religion is always the unseen, but not unmentioned running mate of many—mostly between Muslim and Christian candidates, with the continued issue of control and influence. There also have been tribalism charges between the three major ones: Yoruba, Hausa, and Ibo.
Tinubu’s vice president choice is Kashim Shettima, the Muslim former governor of Borno state.
Running for the sixth time is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is a northerner, a Muslim, and a Fulani. Abubakar has campaigned heartily on a record as vice president in 1999 and 2007 that he claims positively aided the economy, via banking, telecommunications, employment, and pensions.
As he dodges charges of misappropriation of funds and giving pals positions, Abubakar has promised that he also will tackle social insecurity with a better-equipped military, to target Islamic extremists and rebels in the northeast and unrest in southeastern with Biafra secessionists.
Perhaps in acknowledgment of those heavy challenges, Abubakar running mate is Delta state’s Christian Governor Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa.
Leading the pack is the Labor Party’s Obi, 61. The youngest of the senior citizens, the former governor of Anambra has managed to harness the attention of a jaded and disenfranchised, anti-establishment young voting segment.
Using social media and a strong connection to Nigeria’s youthful urban population, Obi’s rallying and protesting Obidents feel confident that they can win.
Obi, a southeastern Christian Igbo, was Abubakar’s 2019 PDP running mate.
He has pointed out that when he left his position as governor of Anambra state 10 years ago, he had accumulated an unprecedented budget surplus. He has also determined that a better-resourced military could tackle the security issues. He wants to expand Nigeria’s economy and reduce the nation’s dependence on oil exports.
Also noting the traditional ethnic and tribal constraints in Nigerian politics, Obi’s vice president choice is economist Yusuf Baba-Ahmed, a former senator from the northern Kaduna state.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, 66, is the fourth most popular candidate campaigning to become Nigeria’s next president. Head of his Northern-based, but nationally-impactful Kwankwasiya (Red Cap Revolution) movement, the former 2-time Governor of Kano state was also a defense minister and senator. With degrees from Britain and India, and a focus on education, he too though has faced allegations of corruption, which he vigorously denied. His running mate is Edo State’s own Bishop Isaac Idahosa.
Many political analysts suggest though, that he probably can not muster the 25% required in two-thirds of the 36 states including Abuja, the Federal capital city.
Kwankwaso’s followers stick with him even as he has aligned himself to different parties; in 2013 from the Peoples Democratic Party to the All Progressives Congress, and now the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). While independent election observers, think a win may not be feasible, they do say that should a second round becomes a reality, the popular Hausa leader could become a “king-maker,” influencing potential northern voters for Tinubu and Abubakar.
“Amidst the three front runners, it’s a toss up,” Nigerian activist and commentator Ogugua Iwelu told the Amsterdam News. “Nigeria is at a cross-road to make or break it economically and politically. [I] doubt if the commander in chief wants to leave.”
Running again is Omoyele Sowore, 52, the Ondo state-born Nigerian human rights activist and presidential candidate for the African Action Congress. He has a family in New Jersey and founded Sahara Reporters in Manhattan, where he attended Columbia University and taught modern African history at the City University of New York and post-colonial African history at the New York School of the Arts.
Sowore, a tri-state-connected student activist who was jailed and beaten in the last campaign, ran an energetic campaign against current president Muhammadu Buhari in 2019.
Meanwhile, age and health questions are commonly levied against septuagenarians Tinubu and Atiku.
In 2019, the convoluted, once-rescheduled election had, according to the Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission, an eventual turnout of only 35%.
In attempts to curtail vote-buying with money (and food), as alleged in 2019, the naira currency was completely revamped a few weeks ago. Public outcry led to the government implementing an extension to enable people to re-adjust without undergoing the reported currency change hardships.
Reports have often said that there is a huge youth populace in Nigeria—almost 10 million recently registered voters under 34 years old. The unemployment rate has many disaffected youth searching for work and purpose. They are savvy and aware. Sowore and O)bi have courted this population.
Social observer Lamadi B. told the Amsterdam News, “Elections are not [won] on social media, they are won on the ground. Obi has a strong presence, but the two established parties—APC and PDP—have both a tried and tested major infrastructure. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of hardship. People are suffering. You cannot win if you display insensitivity to the people.”
Seun Kuti, the son of world icon Fela Anikulapo Kuti, the Nigerian musician, bandleader, composer, political activist, and Pan-Africanist known as Fela, is an outspoken critic of politicians and policies that have worked against the Nigerian people. He has re-established Fela’s Movement of the People.
“I am not good at predictions,” he told the Amsterdam News, “but I can explain patterns in a system. Our election will throw up another imperialist capitalist stooge.”
As recent elections worldwide have proven, polls are subjective and not necessarily accurate barometers of the political climate.
“As it is, the economy is in a serious crisis,” said Wuyi Jacobs, the host and producer of WBAI.FM AfrobeatRadio, told the Amsterdam News. “The present administration carried out a currency swap a few weeks [before the] election, and literally withdrew cash from circulation, ostensibly to reduce the use of hoarded cash for vote-buying by politicians, so the economy is facing a collapse, while on the political front, the country’s regional, ethnic, and religious fault lines have become the dominant feature of the election. Meanwhile, the country is very tense in terms of its security situation. There have even been allegations of coup-plotting. The country may be heading for a political and electoral stalemate.”
If there is an undisturbed and unobstructed high turnout, the election results on February 25will be a strong indicator of what Nigerians are looking for in leadership.
“Nigeria is at a precipice. If it does not get it right in this forthcoming election, I fear it runs over the cliff edge,” warned Odili Obi, a British-based Nigerian activist. “Africa is waiting for Nigeria to get its leadership right, and the whole world is watching. February 25, 2023, is the day that will determine the future…Long live Nigeria!”
It seems your article is biassed. You couldn’t even mention Kwankwaso who had the highest qualification of them all and with tracked record of service as former Governor of Kano State. If you deny the truth now, the ballot results will correct you. Please next time you should be fair in your presentations otherwise you’ll lose readers.
Thanks.