The Screen Actors Guild winners have been announced and the analysis of the Oscar race (March 12) has begun. Last year, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards’ top winners corresponded exactly with the Academy Awards winners.
A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” directed by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“the Daniels”), was the big winner. The film’s stars—Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Jamie Lee Curtis—all received SAG awards for their individual performances, as well as the award for Best Cast in a Motion Picture, the equivalent of Best Picture.
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” won the Directors Guild Award and the Producers and Screen Actors Guild award. This is the little indie that is upsetting industry expectations. The film has scored 11 Oscar nominations.
In the old days, the Golden Globe use to be the Oscar indicator. Now, it’s SAG and last year was the first indication of an Oscar race that shifted handing the Oscar to “CODA” when the wind was under “The Power of the Dog.”
“CODA” won the Producers Guild, as did “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” SAG also led the way to an Oscar win by forecasting films like “Spotlight” and “Parasite,” with both films going all the way with the Actors Guild. And to a bigger point, A24 also won a Best Picture Oscar with “Moonlight,” but this is the studio’s first SAG ensemble victory. This little film is making history in many ways. This is the non-streaming film to win this top award since “Parasite” won in 2020.
“I think if I speak, my heart will explode,” an emotional Yeoh said on stage while accepting her award. “SAG-AFTRA, to get this from you, who understand what it is to get here…Every one of you knows the journey, the roller-coaster ride, the ups and downs. But most importantly, we never give up. I thank you…This is not just for me. This is for every little girl who looks like me.”
Yeoh follows Yuh Jung Youn’s Supporting Actress win for “Minari” (2020) as the second Asian woman to win a film acting prize.
I’m confident that the winner for Best Picture will be “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” but some insiders are still suggesting that “All Quiet on the Western Front” or “The Banshees of Inisherin” could still upset the Oscar race.
Insiders have been confident that director Steven Spielberg was a lock for “The Fabelmans” and since the Academy’s voting base is still 66% male and 81% white, the vote might swing in his direction. But “the Daniels” won the Directors Guild of America honor, which has moved them closer to winning the gold statue on March 12.
Now to Best Actor. All five nominees are first-timers and not since 1935 has that occurred. For insiders, the competition is between SAG winner Brendan Fraser for “The Whale” and Austin Butler for “Elvis.” My money’s on Fraser because Hollywood loves a good comeback story.
In the Best Actress category, it’s SAG winner Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” with Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”) nipping at her heels.
I agree with my colleagues that the Best Supporting Actor honor is going to Ke Huy Quan for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which delivers another Hollywood comeback, and one that’s inspirational on myriad levels.
For Best Supporting Actress, all indicators are pointing toward Angela Bassett’s “Wakanda Forever,” but if we are all wrong, it would be Jamie Lee Curtis who upsets this momentum because she just won a SAG award. Bassett is the first actor ever nominated from an MCU film and there’s an empire working behind the scenes to help her take home the gold.
The other predicted wins are:
Original Screenplay, Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Adapted Screenplay, Sarah Polley, “Women Talking”
Animated Feature, “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Production Design, “Babylon”
Cinematography: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Costume Design, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Editing, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Makeup and Hairstyling, “The Whale”
Sound, “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Visual Effects, “Avatar: The Way of Water”
Original Score, “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Original Song, “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Documentary, “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
International Feature, “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Animated Short, “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
Documentary Short, “The Elephant Whisperers”
Live Action Short, “An Irish Goodbye”
Final Oscar voting begins at 9 a.m. PT on Thursday, Mar. 2, 2023, and ends at 5 p.m. PT on Tuesday, Mar. 7, 2023.
The 95th Academy Awards® show airs on Sunday, Mar. 12, 2023.
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