Chances are that by the time you read this dispatch, there could be a fresh batch of presidential poll results, but at the moment, Trump leads Biden in five of six key battleground states, according to the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer. Trump is currently the top choice among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
A key concern for the Biden team is the extent to which the polls show that his drag may come from young and nonwhite voters, which may be an outcome of his stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
Perhaps in a way to correct this downturn, Biden publicly announced last Thursday an ultimatum that an Israeli military offensive in the city of Rafah, Gaza, would result in a shutoff of U.S. armaments. According to sources familiar with the ultimatum, it was the culmination of several phone calls between Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that began in February, in which the president prevailed on the Israeli leader to reconsider plans to invade the densely populated city.
That request was obviously ignored by Netanyahu; the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) since then established a strong presence in two major entry points, choking off the possibility of aid to the increasing humanitarian crisis there.
Along with the ultimatum, Biden signed off on a pause in the delivery of 3,500 bombs to Israel, fearing they would be dropped on Rafah. Biden told CNN that “(i)f they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that I have with that problem.”
For all his warnings, it is clear that Biden will not break the longstanding U.S. alliance with Israel, which will remain a sticking point for many of those opposed to the war and demanding a ceasefire.
House Democratic leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) emphasized that his party will continue its support of Israel. “We will not allow extremists to throw the country and Congress into chaos,” he said during an appearance on “60 Minutes.”
If opinions continue to move along these lines, particularly with voters on the left, actions in Gaza will be the main reason why a significant number have promised not to vote for Biden, according to the polls cited above. Of course, this doesn’t mean they will vote for Trump, either. Biden may be able to counter this loss by wooing voters who balk at the idea of supporting Trump because of his conservative stance on abortion and women’s reproductive rights.