As the Yankees battle the Baltimore Orioles for first place in the American League East division, Murphy’s law has taken hold of a team that was dominant up until the middle of last month, when they took a sudden and rapid fall. Before losing to the Boston Red Sox on the road on June 15, the Yankees had gone 13-3 in their previous 16 games and were 27 games over .500 at 50-23.
Going into Tuesday night’s game versus the Cincinnati Reds to open a three-game series at home, the Bronx Bombers have been defused. They were on the losing end nine of their previous 13 games, and at 54-32 were tied with the 53-31 Orioles. The Yankees had lost four consecutive series before splitting four games in Toronto against the Blue Jays last Thursday through Sunday.
The causes for the team’s decline have been multifaceted. A left hamstring injury to designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton had the Yankees place him on the injured list on June 23; he is expected to be out at least two more weeks. Moreover, first baseman Anthony Rizzo fractured his left forearm on June 16 facing the Red Sox and the recovery time was projected to be two months from the time of the incident.
In their absence, right fielder Juan Soto and center fielder Aaron Judge have been carrying the offense. Judge led Major League Baseball with 31 home runs and 82 RBI as of Tuesday, the only player with 30 or more homers and more than 80 RBI, and Soto was batting .303 with 20 homers (7th) and 61 RBI (6th). But it is the Yankees’ pitching, which was the best in baseball for the opening three months of this season, that is at the center of their current struggles.
Prior to Sunday’s game 8-1 victory over Toronto, the Yankee starters had given up 100 runs since June 15. That number leads the majors. Until that point, their earned run average was the lowest in the league. They went into the Tuesday 5th. Gerrit Cole, who pitched well Sunday in just his third start this season after recovering from right elbow inflammation, was beaten badly by the Mets in his previous start. He allowed just one earned run in five innings against the Blue Jays, but gave up four home runs to the Mets on June 25 in a 9-7 Yankees loss.
The other starters haven’t fared well during this stretch. Rookie Luis Gil, who was scheduled to start on Tuesday, had a 2-2 record in June after winning the AL Pitcher and Rookie of the Month Award for May going 6-0. Same decline for Carlos Rodon, who went 5-1 in May but 2-3 in June. Only Marcus Stroman had an above-.500 record in both months. However, in a start against Boston on June 16, a 9-3 defeat, he allowed seven stolen bases. The total of nine by the Red Sox was the most in MLB in over 100 years.
There is a variation among the pitching styles of the starters. Cole, Rodón, and Gil being hard throwers; Stroman and Nestor Cortez finesse pitchers, relying on movement and location to master hitters. It is necessary for manager Aaron Boone to put together the right order for the rotation to alter opponents’ hitting patterns in a series. Change of speed is probably the most effective way to get hitters out, and the Yankees can create difficulty for batters with this strategy. Analytics will play a role, but numbers aren’t always the best indicator of effectiveness.
The Yankees will host the Red Sox for three games tomorrow through Sunday, then take on the Rays in Tampa for three next Tuesday through Thursday.