The recently concluded Republican National Convention, now effectively the MAGA convention, provided Democrats with a lesson in the power of storytelling, even if the narrative is false: A central theme in Donald Trump’s political discourse remains the myth of “migrant crime.”
Governor Greg Abbott of Texas, despite ongoing power outages in Houston, audaciously claimed, “President Biden has welcomed into our country rapists, murderers, even terrorists, and the price that we have paid has been deadly.” Similarly, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas falsely asserted, “Every day, Americans are dying” in crimes committed by migrants.
A video shown during the convention falsely claimed, “The Biden [illegal immigrant] surge has also led to a surge in violent crimes committed by illegal migrants.” Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas declared that Biden “welcomed a Third World invasion.”
The supposed violent intent of the illegal immigrants is implied by the word “invasion,” but a moment’s reflection is enough to realize that so-called invading armies are not looking for jobs when they intrude.
The speakers’ stories of individual immigrants who have committed awful crimes were front and center, but it is a leap to go from highlighting the need to punish individual murderers to supporting punishing everybody who shares the same immigration status, as if they are all murderers, when there are no facts to substantiate the MAGA claim of a migrant crime surge.
In fact, U.S. rates of crime and immigration have moved in opposite directions in recent years. As the number of foreign-born Americans has increased for decades, the murder rate has fluctuated independently. Data from the New York Times, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the American Community Survey clearly show this lack of correlation.
Yes, some migrants have committed violent crimes. With more than 45 million immigrants in the U.S., it is inevitable that a few—like any other group—will commit crimes. Similarly, thousands of native-born Americans commit violent crimes each week, including the 20-year-old Thomas Cooke, a White native-born American and registered Republican who attempted to assassinate Donald Trump last week.
The best data on illegal immigration and crime comes from Texas—the only state that records criminal convictions and arrests by immigration status. Texas is also an ideal state to study immigrant criminality because it borders on Mexico, has the second-largest illegal immigrant population of any state, is governed by Republicans, does not have sanctuary jurisdictions, has a reputation for strictly enforcing its criminal laws, and most border encounters of illegal crossers since 2020 occurred there. Homicide is the most serious crime, and the homicide data is the most thoroughly recorded.
Between 2013 and 2022, the homicide conviction rate in Texas was 2.2 per 100,000 illegal immigrants, 1.2 per 100,000 legal immigrants, and 3.0 per 100,000 native-born Americans. Illegal immigrants were 26.2% less likely than native-born Americans to be convicted of homicide. Legal immigrants were 61.4% less likely than native-born Americans to be convicted of homicide. Focusing on 2022, homicide conviction rates for illegal immigrants and legal immigrants were 35.6% and 62.3%, respectively, below those of native-born Americans.
Yet, Trump and other Republicans have suggested that immigrants are particularly likely to be criminals, citing a few isolated incidents. The data shows the opposite: Immigrants are less likely to commit crimes. There are legitimate concerns about the border and illegal immigration, but increased crime is not one of them. If more immigration led to more crime, statistics would reflect a spike in crime rates alongside immigration flows, both locally and nationally. Instead, the data reveals the opposite.
Cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver have experienced an influx of immigrants over the past couple of years, during which murder rates have fallen. Similarly, border counties in Texas have lower violent crime rates than the state and national averages, as crime analyst Jeff Asher has found.
The isolated crimes committed by migrants that Trump and his allies highlight do not represent a broader trend. Studies show that immigrants have had lower incarceration rates—a proxy for crime—than native-born Americans for at least 150 years. Another study found that undocumented immigrants have lower felony arrest rates than legal immigrants or native-born Americans.
Why? Consider migrants’ motives. Many risk their lives by crossing dangerous jungles, rivers, and deserts throughout Latin America to reach the U.S. for better-paying jobs and a better life. In many cases, they are fleeing crime and violence back home. If they entered the U.S. illegally, they have a strong incentive to avoid trouble with the law to avoid detection and deportation.
People have legitimate reasons to be frustrated with illegal immigration and to worry about border issues. Liberal mayors have faced challenges with the surge of illegal immigrants in their cities, which has strained public resources, particularly housing. A porous border also raises security concerns, such as the flow of fentanyl and the risk of terrorism. When an undocumented immigrant commits a crime, it can contribute to a sense of lawlessness and chaos.
However, more immigration has not caused more crime. The myth of a crime surge is a tactic to incite the MAGA base, who may believe that Black and Brown immigrants are inherently criminal due to their appearance. This narrative is racist, xenophobic, and despicable.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Felicia J. Persaud is the publisher of NewsAmericasNow.com, a daily news outlet focused on positive news on the Black immigrant communities of the Caribbean and Latin America.