As most political pundits know, Labor Day has traditionally been a fairly accurate barometer in a presidential race, and the current down-to-the-wire contest is nip and tuck, with Vice President Kamala Harris edging Trump by the slimmest of margins. While Harris has improved her numbers in the Rust and Sun Belt states over the last several weeks, she is doing better in the battleground states with a 3-point margin of error.
If these margins hold until election day in November, Harris may be able to squeak out a victory, and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — bulwarks in the Electoral College count — are sure to be deciding factors. Dems are hoping that the enthusiasm now billowing the sails of the Harris and Walz team doesn’t turn out to be another disappointment, as it was in 2016 when Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 3 million votes in the popular vote but failed to succeed in the Electoral College.
Usually the candidate in front at Labor Day crosses the finish line first, but this race is still too close for the Harris team to rest on its laurels. This presidential race, like no other in history, has been choked with surprises — and we still are several weeks from the customary October surprise.
Harris may continue to hold the lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all with Democratic governors who defeated their opponents by at least 2.5% in 2022. On the other hand, three other swing states — Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — only voted for Democratic candidates once this century, most recently for Georgia and Arizona in 2020, which ultimately bolstered Biden’s outcome.
On Labor Day, Harris took her message and energy to Northwestern High School in Detroit, the vortex of the labor movement. After being introduced by a union leader on Monday, Harris said, “It is always good to be in the house of labor,” a greeting that was met with resounding applause and cheers.
“Don’t we love Labor Day? Everywhere I go, I tell people, ‘Look, you may not be a union member. You better thank a union member.’ For the five-day work week, you better thank a union member. For sick leave, you better thank a union. For paid leave, you better thank a union for vacation time.”
If elected, she promised to pass the PRO Act to give workers more power to organize.
Among the chants interrupting her speech was “Trump’s a scab,” which adorned the T-shirt of Shawn Fain, the UAW leader, during his appearance at the Democratic National Convention. He stood on the stage with Harris and American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten.
Harris closed her speech with some fresh poll numbers from the Detroit Free Press that showed Trump one point ahead of Harris in a head-to-head matchup in a four-way race that included Robert Kennedy, Jr., who suspended his campaign and immediately announced his endorsement for Trump. “We know this is going to be a very tight race,” she concluded.