Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is still leading from the front in the mayoral race, especially among Black and Latino voters, according to new polling.
Candidates have until April 3 to finish collecting at least 3,750 valid signatures on their petitions to get their names on the ballot. Then the city’s primary, using Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), will be on June 24 — so about three months overall to see who will win the Democratic nomination.
“We generally don’t comment on polls, but this shows what we all know,” said Cuomo’s spokesperson Rich Azzopardi in a statement, “the city is in crisis and New Yorkers believe that Andrew Cuomo is the candidate with the experience and the record of results needed to tackle the issues at hand and make New York City a safer and more affordable place for all.”
Cuomo’s campaign strategy has certainly been interesting. He went from being a disembodied boogeyman hovering over incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and the race for months to unofficially campaigning to finally announcing his candidacy late on Saturday, March 1. Despite a pushback from D.R.E.A.M (Don’t Rank Eric or Andrew for Mayor) and Women Against Cuomo coalitions because of Cuomo’s resignation over sexual harassment allegations and “failure” to protect nursing homes (which he’s categorically denied on both fronts) during the COVID-19 crisis, voters emphatically say they like him as mayor.
More importantly, many “anti-Trump surge” voters think Cuomo can stand up for New York City against President Donald Trump and “keep the city safe.” He’s been especially favored among Black voters and clergy for years, going all the way back to Trump’s first term. And according to the poll, Cuomo is also popular with Latino voters and women voters.
Based on the opinion poll from Honan Strategy Group, which surveyed 909 likely Democratic primary voters, people want Cuomo for mayor (41%) but are really beginning to feel that Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani (18%) could be up to the task. City Comptroller Brad Lander rounded third place with 8% of the vote. Adams is back to being in fourth position (6%), similar to where he was in 2021. Bringing up the last rankings were Stringer and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (4%), who has literally been campaigning for about two weeks. Right below both of them was Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos with 2% of the vote.
Alana Sivin is director of Vera Institute of Justice’s Greater Justice New York (GJNY) initiative and affiliated with Vera Action, their independent nonprofit organization. She said that Cuomo has high name recognition, which helps with polling. Cuomo’s father, Mario M. Cuomo — who served three terms as governor after serving as Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State — adds weight to the legacy of his name as well. Mayor Adams and Stringer also arguably have recognizable names among city voters.
Sivin said in their own polling at Vera Action, they found that voters in general want candidates with serious ideas for public safety, government and police accountability, and real solutions that make our subways safer for all. Both Cuomo and Mamdani speak to those issues in different ways, said Sivin.
“People like candidates who are authentic,” said Sivin. “Assemblymember Mamdani throughout his career has consistently spoken to affordability, and he centered his campaign on creating an affordable, livable city, and by the way that his approach to safety has fallen right in line with that as well. Interestingly enough, former Governor Cuomo also has authenticity on his side in a very different way as well. He stuck by his brand.”
In terms of endorsements, there’s been a bit of splintering happening among Black and Brown electeds for or against Cuomo. He notably captured support from quite a few already, including Brooklyn Democratic Chair and Assemblymember Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn; Assemblymembers Eddie Gibbs, Latrice Walker, and Jordan J.G. Wright; former New York State Comptroller Carl McCall, Congressmember Ritchie Torres, and former Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.
Assemblymember Landon Dais, who is “slow walking” his mayoral endorsement, said that he understands why some state electeds go for Cuomo but also why others are gravitating towards his colleague Mamdani. He said Mamdani is “extremely smart,” efficient, relatable on controversial issues, and disciplined in his messaging while Cuomo has already demonstrated that he’s a “good manager” in a crisis. Dais likened the matchup to when former Mayor Michael Bloomberg was running for a third term in 2009 against Comptroller William Thompson. That race, said Dais, was ridiculously close despite Bloomberg benefiting from name recognition, buying power, and the absolute perception of “invincibility.”
Mamdani’s campaign considered being second in the polling as a definite win. Even though his name recognition is still below 50%, he became the first candidate this cycle to reach the fundraising cap this week — at the fastest rate in city history.
“Today’s poll makes one thing clear: Zohran Mamdani is the best candidate to beat disgraced ex-governor Andrew Cuomo,” said Mamdani’s campaign in a statement. “While Cuomo sold out New Yorkers for a book deal, slashed funding for our schools and subways, and curried favor from real estate moguls like Donald Trump, Zohran is laser-focused on the needs of working New Yorkers — and will continue to make that known until Election Day.”
Other electeds, like Assemblymember Khaleel Anderson, have backed Lander in the race.
A coalition of politicians from southeast Queens endorsed Cuomo, a Queens native, in a “blind vote” this week. There was, however, confusion when not everyone on their press release actually wanted to back him. Anderson was among three who broke away from the pack. His reasoning was that the next Mayor needs to focus on affordability, flooding, and shorter commute times among other major issues for Black New Yorkers. He believes that Lander is one of the only candidates that can beat Cuomo. He said he’d ranked Speaker Adrienne Adams, another Queens native, highly as well.
“I’m honored to have earned the support of Khaleel Anderson, a longtime friend of mine who I’ve supported since his 2020 run for the legislature, which made him [then] the youngest Black Assembly Member in New York State history,” said Lander in a statement. “I’m proud that our campaign is the only that boasts support from the Upper West Side to South East Queens, securing the broadest coalition of the mayor’s race.”
Of course, there’s a subset of voters and political groups that are anti-Cuomo and have vowed to never support Mayor Adams. Jasmine Gripper, the co-director of the New York Working Families Party (WFP), is working hard to mobilize voters, particularly women, against them through a series of small-scale protests.
“The former Governor has high name recognition but the reality is that he really hasn’t been spending a lot of time talking to voters and sharing his policy platform and what he intends to do. He might be hitting a ceiling, now or any day, as voters begin to evaluate the field,” said Gripper. “We’re reminded of why he left politics in the first place and the multiple scandals that came with him. People are working hard to remind voters that we don’t have to replace one scandal-ridden politician with another.”
Stringer and Adams have had similar sexual misconduct and assault allegations against them too.
Meanwhile, Mayor Adams is quietly collecting signatures in areas like Harlem and the Bronx to get his name on the ballot but not outwardly campaigning like other candidates. Most political experts looking at the polls don’t consider him much of a contender in the race anymore, whether he runs as a Democrat, Republican, or resorts to running as an Independent. He has repeatedly said when asked that he’s running as a Democrat.
Polling is not infallible.
As the current Mayor likes to point out constantly, around this time in the 2021 mayoral race, his opponent Andrew Yang — as well as the former sanitation commissioner Kathryn Garcia, activist Maya Wiley, and former City Comptroller Scott Stringer — were beating him in the polls as early front runners, and he ultimately succeeded, albeit under wildly different circumstances.
“Most registered Democratic voters did not cast a ballot in the 2021 mayor election,” said Bradley Honan, founding partner and CEO & President of Honan Strategy Group at a media briefing on March 25. “Yet they continue to be a very popular audience to be polled and will continue to be pulled. My argument, when I stand on my soap box here, is that it’s an interesting academic exercise to examine registered voters but they’re not the ones who are going to determine the outcome of the primary election.”
[updated Thurs, March 27]
Why do Black and Latino/a voters appear to support this man, Cuomo? This guy was a grandstanding governor who failed to protect elderly nursing home residents during the Covid pandemic , sexually harassed his female staff, and he lacks any redeeming qualities!