The upcoming 2030 Census count will be a pivotal point in deciding congressional seats for the state, as well as funding and resources for neighborhoods of color. New York State and City electeds are hoping people will start paying attention now.
The New York State Black Legislative Task Force is serious about raising awareness about the Census in their communities. They’re also lobbying Gov. Kathy Hochul to support Bill A05864, which would establish a statewide office for the Census.
“Black communities in New York have been undercounted for far too long. The census is supposed to be about fairness and representation. Still, year after year, communities of color are the ones left out of the numbers and left behind when it comes to funding and political power,” said Assemblymember Michaelle C. Solages, the bill sponsor.
“The 2020 census was especially difficult. It occurred during a pandemic, under political pressure, and with deep mistrust in government systems. That environment discouraged participation, and the consequences were real. New York lost another seat in Congress by just 89 people. That’s not just a data point. It’s a direct hit to our voice and our influence. We can’t let that happen again,” continued Solages.
New York lost one congressional seat in 2020 by 89 people, largely due to the rush to get people counted during the COVID-19 crisis. The state currently has 26 congressional districts. In 1950, it used to have 45. The count is used to determine the number of congressional seats each state has, in a process called apportionment, and electoral districts are redrawn based on where populations have increased or decreased. The government allocates or takes away hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding for communities based on that information. The U.S Census Bureau is currently in the research and testing phase of planning for 2030.
Assemblymember Landon Dais, who co-sponsored the bill, is adamant about organizing for the Census early because government is hardly “efficient,” and it’s ultimately Black and Brown communities that have been historically undercounted and underfunded that suffer.
“In 2030, New York is scheduled to lose two congressional seats,” said Dais at his Census Advocacy Day conference on National Census Day this Tuesday, April 1. “If that happens, the ‘Democratic blue wall’ will no longer be good enough to win the presidential election.”
If trends hold steady, California will lose 4 congressional districts, Illinois two, and Pennsylvania one, according to projections from the Brennan Center for Justice. Meanwhile, southern states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are booming. Texas could gain four seats and Florida three seats in the next reapportionment. The South would become the country’s most populous region, meaning there’d be a solid shift in the regional balance of power, said the Brennan Center.
The biggest challenges Census takers face today are the rapidly changing uses of technology that make it difficult to predict how people will interface with the Census, distrust in government, declining response rates, increasingly diverse populations which require more tailored questions, complex living arrangements, and highly mobile citizens, said the U.S Census Bureau.
Jeff Wice, Distinguished Adjunct Professor/Senior Fellow at New York Law School, advised that education and outreach to residents from trusted sources in “hard to count communities” that historically have the lowest census response rates is crucial to make sure that the state as a “whole is not shortchanged” and has “fair representation.”
The state’s population has grown since 2020’s losses, mostly because of the influx of migrants and asylum seekers over the last two or three years. The Census does usually count residents and non-citizens, but Wice warned that there will likely be a question about citizenship on the 2030 Census.
The Supreme Court ruled that the citizenship question, “Is this person a citizen of the United States?,” was constitutional in 2019 but blocked it from appearing on the 2020 Census. Wice said that the Trump administration didn’t follow the rules properly during the first term to get it included, and have learned from that experience. “With the citizenship question and looking at the headlines everyday when we see people being picked up on the streets over immigration issues and their status,” said Wice in an interview with Capitol Pressroom. “We have a major challenge ahead. Why would somebody here in 2030 want to respond to a federal government form after four years of Donald Trump in office scaring the heck out of them.”
Furthermore, Director of the U.S. Census Bureau Robert Santos recently resigned, giving President Donald Trump more leeway to choose who heads the agency.
Councilmember Julie Menin, who served as the director of NYC Census 2020 and as executive assistant corporation counsel at the NYC Law Department, is also coordinating legislation at the city level to establish a Census office.
[updated Thurs, April 3]