NBA playoff series, which can go the distance of seven games, are non-linear. On a graph charting the games, individually and collectively, the axes are volatile, accentuated by highs and lows. The current NBA Finals between the Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers, representing the Eastern Conference, are a microcosm of fluctuations.
The Thunder lead the series 3-2 and can claim the franchise’s first-ever title with a win tonight (8:30 p.m.) on the road in Indiana. A Pacers victory would move the series back to Oklahoma City for Game 7 Sunday night (8:00 p.m.). The Thunder, who had the league’s best regular season record at 68-14 under 40-year-old head coach Mark Daigneault, were the heavy favorites entering the Finals.
Despite the Pacers, guided by their 65-year-old head coach Rick Carlisle, tearing through the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the postseason, defeating both 4-1 in succession, and then dismissing the New York Knicks 4-2 in the conference finals, there remained widespread cynicism among fans and media that they didn’t have the tools to capably match up with the young, talented Thunder team driven by newly minted 2025 regular season MVP, the unshakeable Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has cemented his bona fides by averaging 32.4 points over the first five finals games heading into tonight.
However, Indiana, who have made improbable comebacks and pulling out wins in dramatic fashion the norm in this year’s playoffs, shocked the Thunder on the road in Game 1, scaling out of a 15-point fourth quarter hole to pilfer a 111-110 victory. The Pacers lost Game 2 in OKC by 123-107 but seized Game 3 at home by 116-107 and could have taken control of the series with a Game 4 win at Indiana last Friday. But the Thunder gave them a taste of their own medicine.
Trailing 87-80 to open the fourth quarter, the Thunder turned up their league-best defense and held the Pacers to 17 points in the last period to end the evening with a 111-104 win. Then on Sunday with the series back in Oklahoma City, the Thunder handed the Pacers their first back-to-back losses in over three months when they dropped three straight from March 6 through March 10.
With Pacers star point-guard guard Tyrese Haliburton dealing with a right calf strain, the Thunder handled Indiana down the stretch and took a 120-109 victory, elevated by forward Jalen Williams’ playoff career-high 40 points. Haliburton’s injury is one of the primary storylines and factors as tonight’s tip-off approaches.
“I was not great tonight by any means,” said Haliburton after shooting just 0-6 and totaling just four points in 34 minutes in Game 5.
“It’s not really a thought of mine to not play here. If I can walk, then I want to play … Gotta be ready to go for Game 6.”
Whether he’ll play is yet to be determined. And it could determine the eventual NBA champion.