There was no need to read beyond the first of 14 paragraphs in the highly anticipated memorandum of understanding (MPU) between the United States and Iran to see that trouble was ahead.
The signing of the MOU released on June 18 indicated an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations, on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Those last three words underscored the difficulty of the agreement, and it certainly brought the question of where Israel stood on the matter to the surface, given that the conflict continued even as the main players were tentatively on the same page.
That dilemma continues as the U.S. and Iran meet in Switzerland to discuss lasting peace talks. At the center of the diplomatic negotiations is how the two countries can convert an issued 60-day pause in the war into a lasting peace agreement, thereby stabilizing a fragile truce. The proceedings got off to a troubling start when the Iranian delegation arrived after leaders from Qatar, Pakistan, and the U.S. had concluded the press conference.
Then, after a reported 18 hours of negotiations, Iran’s delegation — led by its speaker of the parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — left the Swiss venue and headed back to Tehran. Now, it’s being debated whether some constructive gains were made, although there appears to be some progress on creation of a de-confliction cell to ensure the end of military operations in Lebanon. Therein lies the rub, and one that has been unchanged since the onset of the five-month long standoff between the U.S. and Iran.
The conflict between the two nations, as more than one pundit has noted, must be seen in the broader context of the upcoming midterm elections, and Trump’s determination to hold the reins in Congress.
There is much speculation, as well, about how all of this plays out for Vice President JD Vance and the 2028 presidential election, to say nothing of the midterms, and if he’s been thrown under the bus as the head of the Swiss negotiation team. He has claimed a few relative concessions, such as allowing UN inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites, though this news is contested by Iranian officials. The war between the contending forces raises a raft of questions and few foreseeable answers.
