The NYPD reports a 22% reduction in shootings and yet a 20.9% rise in murders in Manhattan North precincts last year in an unusual divergence between two traditionally linked crime stats.
Both shootings and murders were down citywide last year, a trend reflected by almost every other patrol borough with the exception of Staten Island.
The NYPD credits aggressive enforcement, reporting more than 4,000 gun possession arrests last year resulting in roughly 6,500 illegal firearms off the street. 2023 marked the fourth lowest number of shooting victims over the past three decades, according to the department. Yet uptown neighborhoods like Harlem still saw a rise in murders last year.
Numbers wise, there were nine more murder complaints in Manhattan North last year compared to 2022 despite 37 fewer gun violence incidents and 51 fewer shooting victims. Comparatively, there were 16 fewer murders and 12 fewer shooting incidents in Manhattan South.
The discrepancy does not stem from intimate partner violence. Both domestic violence-related murders and shootings were down in Manhattan North last year, according to the NYPD.
John Jay College associate professor Christopher Herrmann, who formerly headed the NYPD’s Citywide Shooting and Homicide analyses, says the numbers “don’t make sense” given shootings make up a majority of murders, frequently leading to statistical correlations. He says it’s especially unusual given both percent changes were in the double digits.
“It’s weird to have a downswing and gun violence and upswing in murders,” said Herrmann. “If…it’s not intimate partner violence, now we’re starting to think about stabbings or assaults or [vehicular homicides].”
Could underreporting be an issue? Not likely, Herrmann said. While victims of other index crimes like rape and burglary don’t always come forward, shooting victims are almost always treated in hospitals where there’s mandated police reporting.
Chief of Department Jeffrey Maddrey told the AmNews during a Mayor’s Office roundtable that the correlation between gun violence and murders uptown requires a deeper look.
“Harlem had a good reduction in shooting violence, but unfortunately we lost a few more people,” he said over Zoom.
Overall, murders dropped by 11.9% from 438 in 2022 to 386 last year. Shooting incidents dropped by 24.7% from 1,294 in 2022 to 974 last year.
But the crime stats don’t always reflect on-the-ground sentiment. Harlem Mothers S.A.V.E. founder Jackie Rowe-Adams said she feels like shootings are higher and homicides are lower in her victims services work.
“It depends on who pays attention [to the crime stats],” she said. “You can read that and you can hear that but another person can go and say ‘well on my block they just finished shooting, I’m not paying attention to that.’ It could go either way.“
Tandy Lau is a Report for America corps member and writes about public safety for the Amsterdam News. Your donation to match our RFA grant helps keep him writing stories like this one; please consider making a tax-deductible gift of any amount today by visiting https://bit.ly/amnews1.