Are Democrats losing Black and Latino voters?

Voters of color have overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates in presidential years despite a small throughline of cultural conservatism, mostly among male Black and Brown voters. But, according to pollsters, in the four years since the 2020 presidential election, Democrats have lost a little ground with their most loyal demographic.

In New York City, the loss of former Councilmember Marjorie Velázquez in the Bronx—the first Puerto Rican woman to serve in the seat—to Republican newcomer and now Councilmember Kristy Marmorato in 2023’s citywide council district elections was a bit shocking to local politicos. This was the first time in 40 years a Republican was elected to the City Council from the Bronx. 

Velázquez was an incumbent and considered to have “every structural advantage” she needed to win. For context, City Council District 13 is made up of mostly Hispanic (44 percent) and White non-Hispanic (31 percent) residential working- and middle-class homeowners in the East Bronx, according to the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York (CUNY). The district was also about 61 percent Democrat and 14 percent Republican. 

Most believe her loss was because she backed the Bruckner Boulevard rezoning, which proposed creating four new buildings with 349 units among seven properties in the district. A portion of the units would be for seniors (99 units at 60 percent AMI), veterans, and affordable housing (24 at 40 percent AMI).

“I have to be honest, I struggled with it,” Velázquez said in an NY1 interview. She believed it was the right decision to make even though it probably cost her the election. “I was complacent, in a world where we need to come forward and talk about what pressing matters we could have…I certainly didn’t have the opportunity to fully discuss the rezoning, what led to my decision, and ultimately owning to the fact that at this point in time, not just New York City, New York State, and my district, we need to talk about housing and housing for everyone.”

District 13 was just one City Council district in the Bronx in a hyperlocal election that implemented ranked choice voting (RCV). According to experts the AmNews reached out to, the small portion of voters of color who don’t identify as Democrat or vote for Democrats may give some insight into the national polling trends in political affiliations among racial groups and what issues are flipping people’s loyalties going into the 2024 presidential election. 

A 2023 Gallup survey indicated that at least 66 percent of non-Hispanic Black adults and 47 percent of Hispanic adults identify as Democrat or Democratic-leaning, while 19 percent of non-Hispanic Black adults and 35 percent of Hispanics identify as Republican. For comparison, in 2020, 77 percent of Black adults favored the Democrats and 11 percent the Republicans. Democrats’ hold among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18–29 has especially “slid,” according to the data. 

It’s critical to note that national polling researchers have found it difficult to reach voters of color to survey. Black American opinions have been notoriously underrepresented and polling rarely captures the cultural and lingual variation within the Latino and Hispanic communities, leading to a higher margin of error for these groups. 

Being Black and Republican

“I’ll be honest, are there tons of African American Republicans throughout the state? No, there’s not, but look, in the area (where) I grew up here in upstate New York, if you’re a good person and do a good job, people vote for the person,” said Chemung County Executive Chris Moss, 57, a Black Republican who was elected to office in 2018 in Elmira, N.Y. He spent about 30 years in law enforcement before getting elected. 

Being one of only a few Black Republicans can lead to feeling isolated, he said. 

Moss was one of the upstate county executives who signed an emergency order against Mayor Eric Adams’s relocation plan to offset the city’s burden to shelter asylum seekers and migrants. He theorized more largely that “kitchen table” issues like gas prices, affordable housing, public safety, and inflation, along with immigration and border security, might be influencing some people to lean away from the Democrat side. 

Moss hopes that as more Black and Hispanic voters break with their generational tradition of voting Democrat, they consider being Republican, but ultimately thinks the divisiveness and extreme loyalty in political parties that’s prevalent in discussing today’s politics would drive more people in the state to be independent or leave their ballots blank in November. “I’m not sure either Trump or [President Joe] Biden has handled or said the right things that are going to attract a larger segment of Hispanic or Black vote,” said Moss, about the impact of the Israel-Palestine war. 

Moss doesn’t view the Republican party as being synonymous with anti-immigration or Trump. He has not attended any Black Voices for Trump rallies. He noted that most Republican leaders and a silent majority are afraid of what would happen to them if they don’t support Trump and toe the party line. He said he intended to vote for Nikki Haley if she were still in the race, but certainly won’t pick what he called a “weak” Biden. 

“I think he panders—look at these school loans. I know lots of people who have been paying off their school loans, including my wife. Not anymore but for many, many years,” said Moss about Biden. “To come in and have those loans taken care of by the federal government—I don’t think that’s fair.” 

In addition to race and ethnicity, factors affecting party affiliation nowadays include age, education, geographic region, gender, global politics, and size of one’s community. However, the intersection of religion with race and social justice issues is quite possibly the biggest determinant. 

Black Protestants and Hispanic Catholics have been considered “solidly Democratic” for decades, according to the Pew Research Center, but a small chunk of both identifies as Republican or leans Republican, probably because of issues like LGBTQ rights, abortion, homelessness, and crime.

“If you aggregate and look at countries of origin, particularly for Latinos, if coming from a country with authoritarian rulers or socialism or communism, they are more aligned with Republican parties and candidates,” explained Dr. Nadia E. Brown, a professor of government and chair of the Women’s and Gender Studies Program and affiliate in the African American Studies program at Georgetown University. “[For] Evangelical, Catholic Latinos, questions on abortion rights and access are a driving factor.”

Brown noted that for Afro Latinos who have less “proximity to whiteness” in terms of skin color, despite their religion, cultural traditions, or language, the perception of being Black American is more pronounced. “Because of the ‘one-drop rule,’ whether you are a Black Latino or Black Caribbean person, you’re treated all the same in the United States. Those differences get flattened, but proximity to whiteness can change politics for Latinos who were receiving benefits in their home country,” said Brown.

There’s also a gender gap in the voting behavior of Black men and women. Black women, for the most part, remain a major and loyal voting bloc for Democrats. Black men are mostly Democratic, but there’s a resonance for some with more conservative and Republican-leaning values because of their standing in a patriarchal society that’s hindered by structural racism, said Brown. 

About 19 percent of Black men approved of Trump in 2020, Gallup reported. 

“Republicans are seen as strong men—you’re pro-military—compared to Democrats, who are more feminized, dealing with issues like health care or women and children’s issues,” said Brown. “Trump is unabashedly flexing masculinity. It’s toxic as hell, but he’s making a group of people…feel powerful because they are men. It speaks to men who feel they have been left behind. For Black men, that left-behind is the feeling that ‘because of racism, I don’t have the same access to patriarchy that I should have.’” 

Factors affecting party affiliation

Hispanics are considered the largest growing population in the U.S., although who is defined by the U.S. Census as such has been hotly debated for decades. Their question on the census form has been revised more than once and still might not include all the racial and ethnic distinctions. 

“There’s way more variation—Puerto Ricans being actual American citizens versus Cubans versus Mexicans versus first-, second-, third-generation,” said Dr. Tasha Philpot, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. “Each of those groups is very different in terms of their outlook toward politics, especially if they’re phenotypically white versus phenotypically Black.”  

Philpot joked that she gave up trying to predict elections back in 2016 based on polling, but can say for sure that Black and Brown voters have not always agreed in terms of political ideology. Despite these differences, the voting bloc largely tends to prioritize race and racialized issues such as civil rights, said Philpot.

“Blacks are the most religious group in today’s society—Black women especially—so a lot of conservative views tend to stem from their alliance with Judeo-Christian principles,” Philpot said. “The other thing is (that in) moving from slavery into Jim Crow, there’s still an adherence to respectability politics, which requires…mirroring, as much as possible, mainstream society in terms of being chaste, [and focusing] on family values and traditional gender roles. But one of the reasons that doesn’t transfer into voting patterns is because there’s more imminent issues that they think about when it comes to casting a ballot.”

Last year’s statistics “represent a new low” for Democrats, coupled with the rise of ultra-conservative Republican groups attempting to reach more Black and Brown voters, whether through campaign promises or bizarrely fake AI-fueled images of Trump posing with Black people. 

Historically, Gallup reported that the Democratic candidate for president over the last five presidential elections since 2000 has averaged 91 percent of the Black vote, with 8 percent on average going to the Republican candidate. 

In the 2000 presidential election, where George W. Bush ran against Al Gore in a contested decision that ultimately ended up in the Supreme Court, only 9 percent of Blacks and 35 percent of Hispanics voted Republican. 

Brown said that was a comparatively small number but was still considered a “sizable shift” in people of color voting Republican since the 1950s, which led political scientists to believe that trend would continue even though 50 percent of Black voters thought Bush “stole the election” and that their votes weren’t counted fairly. 

In the 2016 and 2020 elections, commentators and reports discussed the possibility that Trump would do well among Black voters. His campaign created a “Black Voices for Trump” organization, but there were few indications in polling data that he had been successful, Gallup reported at the time. Still, it’s hardly the first time the Republican party has tried to make inroads with this demographic of voters. 

“Diversity in practice and diversity on paper,” Brown said. “I think when they’re talking about diversity in the party, they’re thinking about a whole range—it’s gender, age, income. They don’t have an idea in mind. That’s because the party is centered on rugged individualism: Everyone is an individual who should be able to excel or fail based on their own making, so there’s no need to think about diversity…Republicans say, ‘Yeah, we’d have a woman candidate if she’s the best person for the job.’” 

Trump made the same promise to do more outreach to Black and Latino voters in this year’s presidential election. He boasted about holding a major campaign event with Black hip-hop artists and athletes, as well as making appearances in Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit to speak with Black leadership. However, there’s been a clear lack of investment in getting these plans off the ground and the Republican Party’s minority outreach offices across the country have been shuttered, reported the Associated Press.

How younger Black and Brown voters might swing in NYC elections

This year brings several concurrent elections in New York City. Two special elections in February and the April presidential primary have already passed. The June state and federal primaries and the November general election are still ahead.

Brown said that young Black voters are much more engaged but are dissatisfied with their choices of Trump and Biden for the second time. “I think there’s going to be an outcry,” she said. “These young people are trying to show their dissatisfaction with politics as usual.”

Philpot admitted she’s “utterly baffled by the polling at this point” but definitely agrees that Millennials, Gen Zers, and younger generations of voters are upset with the current state of American politics because of the Palestine-Israel war. Philpot doesn’t think they’d readily vote for Biden or Trump.

“It’s hard to escape the news images of students being violently met [by] administrations, whether that be college or state, when they’re protesting,” said Philpot, “And I think those that are not physically protesting see what’s happening. That, coupled with the push to abolish [diversity, equity, and inclusion] on a lot of campuses are just conflating their frustration with the powers that be.”

The borough of Brooklyn (Kings County), although largely Democratic, has a few districts that are wholly Republican. Brooklyn Democratic County Chair and Assemblymember Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn said they recognize and respect “incredibly diverse perspectives” within the county. The party aims to provide platforms for open discussions, promote voter education, and support candidates who resonate with the values and priorities of their diverse electorate, she said.

“While we are laser-focused on electing more Democrats in our borough, state, and on the federal level, the Brooklyn Democratic Party knows it is crucial to approach this topic with nuance and respect for individual choices,” said Bichotte in a statement. “There’s a wide range of factors why some Black and Latino individuals may choose to vote for Republicans, such as personal beliefs, cultural values, and the appeal of specific Republican candidates or policies. It’s crucial to note that political affiliations and voting patterns vary among individuals within any racial or ethnic group.”

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Bichotte said she is continually committed to fostering a culture of inclusivity while actively engaging with Black and Latino voters to strengthen the party and ensure that all voices are heard and represented. 

Ariama C. Long is a Report for America corps member who writes about politics for the Amsterdam News. Your donation to match our RFA grant helps keep her writing stories like this one; please consider making a tax-deductible gift of any amount today by visiting https://bit.ly/amnews1.
This story was produced as part of the 2024 Elections Reporting Mentorship, organized by the Center for Community Media and funded by the NYC Mayor’s Office of Media and Entertainment.